By Jorgen Randers, G. Bologna
1972: su incarico del membership di Roma, un gruppo di studiosi dell’MIT pubblica I Limiti dello sviluppo, che prefigura gli effetti della crescita della popolazione, dei consumi e dell’inquinamento su un pianeta fisicamente limitato. Dopo decenni di critiche feroci, ormai si ammette che le conclusioni di quello studio erano corrette.
2012: Jorgen Randers, uno dei coautori di I limiti dello sviluppo, fa il punto su quanto è successo e prova a delineare il futuro globale da qui al 2052. Vivremo sempre più nelle città, saremo più connessi e creativi, e dovremo trovare nuovi modi consistent with gestire le tensioni dovute alle diseguaglianze crescenti. Probabilmente l. a. popolazione non crescerà quanto previsto, con una riduzione degli impatti sulla biosfera, ma le rinnovabili non riusciranno a rimpiazzare i combustibili fossili in pace in step with eliminare del tutto los angeles possibilità di un riscaldamento climatico catastrofico... Nessun settore è escluso, e Randers ci mette a disposizione una guida consistent with interpretare e gestire le turbolenze dei prossimi quarant’anni.
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Additional info for 2052: scenari globali per i prossimi quarant’anni
A special emphasis is given to the analysis of farmers’ main income sources, including coffee production. For many years conflicts have displaced a large portion of the rural population and made it difficult to access seeds and other inputs, as well as destroyed important economic and social infrastructure. Livestock were looted or killed and crops were burned. Other factors also contributed to lower productivity, including land fragmentation, soil erosion as a result of overgrazing, chemical contamination (many fields are contaminated by high levels of iron and aluminum-based toxins), expansion to marginal lands, limited access to credit and financial services, and use of basic agricultural techniques.
Thus, the figures for sectoral share of GDP may differ from other similar studies such as IMF (2006). 13. Undoubtedly, this results from a productivity decline in the sector, a direct consequence of a prolonged period of ethnic conflicts and military coups (1976, 1987, and 1993). The 1976 to 1989 period was marked by two military coups—in 1976 Micumbero, who came to power in 1966, was overthrown by J-B Bagaza, and the latter was removed by Pierre Buyoya in 1987. Moreover, 1988 was marked by ethnic clashes, resulting in several deaths in both main ethnic groups.
This could be done by changing the composition and level of public investment and by providing public services that will enhance performance. Diversification into new sources of growth within the agricultural sector and across sectors (industrial and services) would also play a key role. While this remains a big challenge given the country’s lack of physical and human capital, expanding sources of growth will be essential in enhancing the export sector. Investment in infrastructure should create the conditions necessary to improve market integration and spur higher rates of growth.
2052: scenari globali per i prossimi quarant’anni by Jorgen Randers, G. Bologna