A History of Econometrics: The Reformation from the 1970s by Duo Qin PDF

By Duo Qin

ISBN-10: 0199679347

ISBN-13: 9780199679348

Reformation of Econometrics is a sequel to The Formation of Econometrics: A ancient Perspective (1993, OUP) which lines the formation of econometric concept through the interval 1930-1960. This booklet offers an account of the advances within the box of econometrics because the Nineteen Seventies. according to unique examine, it specializes in the reformists' circulate and faculties of idea and practices that tried a paradigm shift in econometrics within the Nineteen Seventies and Nineteen Eighties.

It describes the formation and consolidation of the Cowles fee (CC) paradigm and strains and analyses the 3 significant methodological makes an attempt to unravel difficulties interested by version selection and specification of the CC paradigm. those makes an attempt have reoriented the point of interest of econometric learn from inner questions (how to optimally estimate a priori given structural parameters) to exterior questions (how to settle on, layout, and specify models). It additionally examines quite a few modelling concerns and difficulties via case reports - modelling the Phillips curve and company cycles. The 3rd a part of the publication delves into the improvement of 3 key elements of version specification intimately - structural parameters, mistakes phrases, and version choice and layout systems. the ultimate bankruptcy makes use of quotation analyses to review the influence of the CC paradigm over the span of 3 and part many years (1970-2005). The quotation information convey that the impression has remained vast and comparatively robust despite definite weakening indicators. It signifies that the reformative makes an attempt have fallen in need of inflicting a paradigm shift.

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In the first study, the structural parameter of interest was the marginal propensity to consume with respect to income, which was estimated by two methods, OLS versus ILS (indirect least squares), the latter being conditional upon the assumption that consumption and income were mutually endogenous in a theoretical model where investment was the driving independent variable. The US national account data of the period 1922–41 were used and two sets of estimates were obtained, one from the full sample and the other the subsample of 1929–41.

Since only presimplified models were available from economics for most of the applied cases, he relegated the specification of unsimplified models to ‘a supermind’. Interestingly, Leamer’s characterization of the search post-data models recapitulates Theil’s (1957) description of shifting ‘maintained’ hypotheses. But the Bayesian vein probably makes the pitfalls more transparent in pursuing such an ad hoc simple-to-general modelling strategy. Further delving into specification problems led Leamer to attempt the taxonomy of Bayesian specification searches, in contrast to what was taught in econometrics textbooks.

A ‘priestly caste’ was found among the academic economist community, with ‘Math-Econ’ assuming the highest status while ‘Develops’ ranked lowest. The caste encouraged ‘fields’ segregation within the tribe and promoted the manufacture of models for ‘ceremonial’ use to the outsiders, whereas within the community, there was ‘alienation, disorientation, and a general loss of spiritual values’. However, more serious attacks on the CC-based structural model approach were targeted at forecasting records and policy simulation issues.

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A History of Econometrics: The Reformation from the 1970s by Duo Qin

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